The aim of this study is to identify and analyze the key drivers influencing the future of online retail stores in Iran, with Digikala as a case study. As the final link in the supply chain, the retail industry plays a vital role in connecting manufacturers with end consumers. Digikala, as the Middle East’s largest and most visited online store, has played an unparalleled role in shaping Iran’s e-commerce ecosystem. Today, the platform engages with over 500,000 sellers.

This research was conducted using a futures studies approach and a mixed-methods (qualitative–quantitative) design. In the first stage, the drivers were extracted through a review of the literature and interviews with experts. In the next stage, the identified drivers were screened using the fuzzy Delphi technique. Subsequently, the final set of drivers was prioritized using the Multi-Attributive Border Approximation Area Comparison (MABAC) method. Finally, the desired scenario was developed through focus group interviews. The findings indicate that ten key drivers play a significant role in shaping the future of online retail stores. Among them, four drivers—personalization based on customer preferences, the development of data-driven analytics in marketing and advertising, the expansion of open innovation policies, and the growth of specialized online stores compared to general marketplaces—were identified as the most influential factors. The results suggest that the future of online retailing will be strongly shaped by data-driven technologies, artificial intelligence, open innovation, and changing competitive dynamics. Accordingly, it is recommended that online retailers focus on personalization, advanced data analytics, and a shift toward more specialized business models to achieve sustainable competitive advantage. This study can serve as a strategic framework for managerial decision-making in the e-commerce industry.